The top ten largest economies of the world in 2020...

[Hector]

Most economists forecast this by 2020...



Top 10 largest economies in 2020 - Analyst Insight from Euromonitor International


Thoughts?

[doctor09210]

Seems fairly accurate,
I mean, china has more since they have more people, it is actually a little lower than i would think though

[Cmonster]

I would think China would have an even bigger piece, with us being smaller and Japan being bigger as well.

Just my 2

SC

[torgospizza]

I expect India to do slightly better than that.

[samurainoir]

Not surprising to me, having been to China this time last year. The cities in the north I visited around Shanghai were full on with Starbucks, McDonalds, Baskin Robbins, Lacoste, Ralph Lauren etc. Huge difference from when i was last here twenty years prior. Driving past the countryside between the major cities was much more sparse, but it's only a matter of time before they start filling in those gaps.

I think Japan's limitation for growth compared to China or India is the smaller geography and population.

[samurainoir]

I expect India to do slightly better than that.

It's only a matter of time. They still need time to ramp up in certain areas of technological expertise compared to say China.

It's like looking at Hong Kong manufacturing these days... They have come a long way since the days when Mego's production was handled there. The bulk of it is now electronics rather than cheap toys, which was shifted over to mainland China.

I actually thought Russia would be bigger.

It's the rank shift that I find the most fascinating. Particularly with everyone else playing musical chairs and Canada remaining static. If I were to take a wild stab in the dark, I'd guess it's because of our natural resources compared to the rest of the world. The small population huddled around the 49th parallel has more than we need, so the extra gets sold to the rest of the world.

[Adam West]

Actually, the only big surprise to me is Brazil. It has the fastest growing economy in the world and thought it would have more than 3% of the pie by 2020. China and India, no big surprises. They just need the time to allow the poorer parts of the population to catch up. One thing that might throw a monkey wrench into all of this is continued global weakness (China's economy has slowed a bit due to lack of consumption by the U.S.) and what seems to be a growing sentiment right or wrong that companies should relocate jobs back in the U.S. rather than outsource and many are doing it despite the higher costs.

[jimsmegos]

I actually had a really cool opportunity to discuss this yesterday with U.S. Senator Mark Pryor. He made some really good points in that China's strategy in become the world's #1 economy is and has been a well calculated plan. Myself I hadn't really paid attention until this talk but now I'm like 'wow, they really are digging in.' The way Pryor explained it was that China's biggest advantage over the U.S. and any other civilized country for that matter is the fact that they are a Communist state and with that control they can easily manipulate their own dollar so that it can always be 'the better deal'. He pointed out that with this control by the state they can easily take a loss of say 20% versus the dollar when it comes to us importing while they can re-tack that 20% on to exports they receive from us (and other spots around the world).

In a very bold and frank manner he pointed out that without true congressional leadership and a firm stance from our leaders China will easily take the number one spot even though we need each other equally to remain on top. I also appreciated the fact that he called it for what it is, a trade war. And sadly the fact remains that without a more hardball approach we may not have any other option before it all comes down to it. Scary stuff really.

[Mikey]

Seems like Korea should be in the top 10

[Adam West]

I actually had a really cool opportunity to discuss this yesterday with U.S. Senator Mark Pryor. He made some really good points in that China's strategy in become the world's #1 economy is and has been a well calculated plan. Myself I hadn't really paid attention until this talk but now I'm like 'wow, they really are digging in.' The way Pryor explained it was that China's biggest advantage over the U.S. and any other civilized country for that matter is the fact that they are a Communist state and with that control they can easily manipulate their own dollar so that it can always be 'the better deal'. He pointed out that with this control by the state they can easily take a loss of say 20% versus the dollar when it comes to us importing while they can re-tack that 20% on to exports they receive from us (and other spots around the world).

In a very bold and frank manner he pointed out that without true congressional leadership and a firm stance from our leaders China will easily take the number one spot even though we need each other equally to remain on top. I also appreciated the fact that he called it for what it is, a trade war. And sadly the fact remains that without a more hardball approach we may not have any other option before it all comes down to it. Scary stuff really.

China has one other weapon in their arsenal. They are the U.S.A.'s largest debt holder. If we wanted to play hardball with them; they could simply stop buying our debt, dump the existing debt they hold on the market, and cause a recession unlike anything we have ever seen. It would kill their economy too so it's almost a current version of a cold war.

[Brazoo]

You gotta figure that this is projecting everything that's going on now forward, but it may not be accounting for major technological advancement.

For example, Korea becomes the largest and most successful manufacturer of gas-less car technology - then Mikey could be right.

I actually had a really cool opportunity to discuss this yesterday with U.S. Senator Mark Pryor. He made some really good points in that China's strategy in become the world's #1 economy is and has been a well calculated plan. Myself I hadn't really paid attention until this talk but now I'm like 'wow, they really are digging in.' The way Pryor explained it was that China's biggest advantage over the U.S. and any other civilized country for that matter is the fact that they are a Communist state and with that control they can easily manipulate their own dollar so that it can always be 'the better deal'. He pointed out that with this control by the state they can easily take a loss of say 20% versus the dollar when it comes to us importing while they can re-tack that 20% on to exports they receive from us (and other spots around the world).

In a very bold and frank manner he pointed out that without true congressional leadership and a firm stance from our leaders China will easily take the number one spot even though we need each other equally to remain on top. I also appreciated the fact that he called it for what it is, a trade war. And sadly the fact remains that without a more hardball approach we may not have any other option before it all comes down to it. Scary stuff really.

To me that all sounds a little too convenient - it seems like there are LOTS of factors at play here.

For one thing it's about putting a huge workforce to work. I wouldn't discount education and innovation as part of China's growth. The USA is decreasing the amount of their GDP they spend on education and China is increasing. China is increasing what they spend on research and development for cutting edge technology - and the US is decreasing. To me, China seems motivated and hungry and we're here in the comfy couch drinking soda.