Big budget summer movies - Winners and Losers

[MIB41]

I was taking a casual look at the big budget summer films coming out this Summer and was blown away by the sheer number of them crammed into a very short period of time. It goes without saying there will be some casualties. Some may be deserving and others may be simply a victim of being in the wrong place at the wrong time...Here's a short list:

The Thing April 29th, Thor May 6th, Pirates 4 May 20th, X-men First Class June 3rd, Super 8 June 10th, Green Lantern June 17th, Cars 2 June 24th, Transformers 3 July 1st, Harry Potter July 15th, Captain America July 22nd

And amongst those ten big films, only THREE of them (Thor, Pirates, and Transformers) have two weeks to breath before the next one comes out. SO that leaves little room for all of them to be big hits. So who wins? Who loses? I think Thor and Pirates will benefit from the two week gap (assuming they are good films). I think X-Men could be the loser here because it gets wedged between Pirates and Super 8. I think Captain America is suspect as well. It doesn't help that he comes out one week after the second part of the Deathly Hallows story from the Potter films. That could prove unfortunate. That and the fact Cap' will be the last in a long list of films in the sci fi/hero genre this summer. Audiences outside of the fan base may be tired and/or jaded by then. One thing is for sure. I'll be in the theater ALOT!

[kennermike]

I was taking a casual look at the big budget summer films coming out this Summer and was blown away by the sheer number of them crammed into a very short period of time. It goes without saying there will be some casualties. Some may be deserving and others may be simply a victim of being in the wrong place at the wrong time...Here's a short list:

The Thing April 29th, Thor May 6th, Pirates 4 May 20th, X-men First Class June 3rd, Super 8 June 10th, Green Lantern June 17th, Cars 2 June 24th, Transformers 3 July 1st, Harry Potter July 15th, Captain America July 22nd

And amongst those ten big films, only THREE of them (Thor, Pirates, and Transformers) have two weeks to breath before the next one comes out. SO that leaves little room for all of them to be big hits. So who wins? Who loses? I think Thor and Pirates will benefit from the two week gap (assuming they are good films). I think X-Men could be the loser here because it gets wedged between Pirates and Super 8. I think Captain America is suspect as well. It doesn't help that he comes out one week after the second part of the Deathly Hallows story from the Potter films. That could prove unfortunate. That and the fact Cap' will be the last in a long list of films in the sci fi/hero genre this summer. Audiences outside of the fan base may be tired and/or jaded by then. One thing is for sure. I'll be in the theater ALOT!

What about BATTLE LA Tomorrow? it looks well made

[MIB41]

What about BATTLE LA Tomorrow? it looks well made

That looks like a very good movie Mike. I think I will check it out.

[Earth 2 Chris]

It's pretty saturated, but its been that way for the last several years. I think last summer was the weakest slate of movies I'd seen in quite a while. I don't think a number 1 debut means as much as it did a few years ago, due to the competition. If the movie has a strong debuts and doesn't fall below 60% the following week, and then continues at that pace, it's considered a hit.

I still think X-Men is going to be the weakest performer out of the super hero flicks. Cap may suffer from being a tail-ender, but Dark Knight was one too. I don't think Cap is going to do DK numbers, but if they advertise it right, it may have legs.

Chris

[MIB41]

It's pretty saturated, but its been that way for the last several years. I think last summer was the weakest slate of movies I'd seen in quite a while. I don't think a number 1 debut means as much as it did a few years ago, due to the competition. If the movie has a strong debuts and doesn't fall below 60% the following week, and then continues at that pace, it's considered a hit.

I still think X-Men is going to be the weakest performer out of the super hero flicks. Cap may suffer from being a tail-ender, but Dark Knight was one too. I don't think Cap is going to do DK numbers, but if they advertise it right, it may have legs.

Chris

I think you hit it spot on Chris. Cap will need some good marketing so the general public will have some anticipation to see this film. I don't count the fan base. Big budget films typically need to score interest across the board. So whoever is in charge of marketing for Cap have best get moving. I'm still waiting for the first regular trailer. The teaser is fine, but 30 seconds hardly counts for anything.

[thunderbolt]

Interested in Thing, Cap, Thor, X-Men and Super 8 the rest blahh. I get the feeling from what I've seen of it so far that GL might be the biggest flop as far as budget vs. box office.

[Hector]

Interested in Thing, Cap, Thor, X-Men and Super 8 the rest blahh. I get the feeling from what I've seen of it so far that GL might be the biggest flop as far as budget vs. box office.

I completely agree with you, T.

I mean, I'll still check out GL...but Ryan Reynolds gets on my bloody nerves...will still give it a shot though...I can't help it...it's the comic book geek inside me...

[Hector]

Transformers...blah...the first one was barely semi-ok...the second one was beyond horrible...I'll pass on the third.

[Mikey]

none of these movies interest me

sadly not even cap

[johnmiic]

I think these might be the weak points of the summer:

Pirates 4 May 20th to X-men First Class June 3rd. Green Lantern June 17th to Cars 2 June 24th to Transformers 3 July 1st.

Will people like Pirates 4 with the changes in the cast? Remains to be seen. Will people accept a "period" X-Men film sans Wolverine? Comic book fans will but the general public will probably be confused. This is a time when Marvel would benefit from crossover characters. If they could have other super heroes from their character stable fit into this story it would be helpful. Alas X-Men must stand on their own.

Green Lantern hinges on Ryan Reynolds performance and whether the script is good. I might guess the script is good by what was in the trailer. A lot of good things in the trailer. Cars 2 is a kids film. Likely it will make money as every 2 parents must buy tickets to take their kids. Do enough kids remember the first one to want to see #2? Or have they grown up now not to care? I think Transformers 3 will put the nail in the coffin in this franchise. No Megan Fox this time around, ( the studio doesn't actually believe people are paying to see Shia LeBoueff do they?).

Captain America benefits from having no other genre competition. Notice nothing scheduled for August? Cap can play out all thru August to make its money.

[Twiki1979]

I'm going to see these 5...don't care for the others...but I'm most excited for these 5 in this order....

Transformers 3
Thor
Green Lantern
Cars 2
Captain America

[jwyblejr]

I think these might be the weak points of the summer:


Cars 2 is a kids film. Likely it will make money as every 2 parents must buy tickets to take their kids. Do enough kids remember the first one to want to see #2? Or have they grown up now not to care?

I think it'll do better than people might think. Disney Channel airing the Mater Tall Tales shorts quite a lot helps it chances. Plus the fact they air the original quite a few times as well.

[Hector]

No Megan Fox this time around, ( the studio doesn't actually believe people are paying to see Shia LeBoueff do they?).

Actually Shia LeBoueff is the heart and soul of Transformers (kinda a moot point though since the Transformers flicks is a soulless movie franchise, lol).

LeBoueff is in high demand.

Megan Fox has done nothing to any movie except to be eye candy...she's a terrible actress...and is not a bankable star at all.

None one the Transformers fans care if she's missing in the new one.

Look for her to end up in a TBS series soon.

[alex]

That looks like a very good movie Mike. I think I will check it out.

This is coming out here as well this weekend, checked the reviews out so far, and not looking to great
Battle: Los Angeles (2011) - IMDb

(by the way this is a great site to checkout out old and new movies, and even discover stuff youve never heard of before, gives U recomendations/top 100 in each genere etc)

[Godzilla]

#1 for me is Cars 2. I know that will be good. The rest all fall after that with varying degrees of interest.