The Avengers vs Dark Knight Rises vs Spider-Man

[Hector]

Which superhero flick will be box office champ?

List from 1-3...

I think without Heath Ledger as an attraction...and this being Nolan's third and final Batman flick...I think it will lose some legs...and finish number two.

The Avengers looks like a lot of fun...and has a full cast of good actors...but I have a feeling it's going to be more flash than substance.

I'm going with the shocking upset...I think the new Spidey flick will appeal to younger kids more...and of course us older geeks...and don't forget...Spider-Man is the number one Marvel superhero...let's not ever forget that...he's a formidable character...don't ever underestimate him...plus Spidey was tailored-made for 3D...I think Spidey is going to rule the box office.

1. Spider-Man
2. Dark Knight Rises
3. The Avengers

There...I said it...

[thunderbolt]

Avengers, Batman, then Spidey. I think Avengers and Bats will be neck and neck and Spidey will do ok, but not be huge like the other two will be.

[Earth 2 Chris]

I'm not even going to guess. I was sooo wrong last year I have no idea. I thought GL would rule, Cap would come in second, Thor third and X-Men would barely crack $50 million. GL tanked (and was uneven), Cap did very well domestically (and was a fantastic film), Thor did great numbers here and abroad (and was a good solid flick) and X-Men did ganbusters (and again, was a fantastic film).

Chris

[The Toyroom]

I'm not even going to guess. I was sooo wrong last year I have no idea. I thought GL would rule, Cap would come in second, Thor third and X-Men would barely crack $50 million.

Ditto...

[MIB41]

I certainly sucked on the predictions last year, but I'll give it another shot...

1) Dark Knight Returns - I think this film will pull in the biggest opening weekend for any hero film just based on the performance and subsequent expectation from the last film. Success breeds success in franchises.

2) Avengers - I think if there is ANY film that will appeal to kids it's one packed with all of their favorite heroes. Plus it screams 'Summer movie excess'. With it also being the first shot into the Summer season, I think it will be a big hit out of the gate. From there, it just depends on how well they made the movie.

3) Spider-man - This is a reboot so it can't compete with the other two films with an established cast. The new trailer was better than I thought, but it still has much to prove. Plus it has to get past the critics. If Green Lantern proved anything, it's that critics can slaughter a film's performance if they boo loud enough before it's opening. The Raimi films enjoyed critical praise. If this gets the thumbs up from critics, it will help it immensely. If it gets thumbs down, it could be an under performer. Only time will tell.

[sprytel]

Batman, Spider-man, Avengers.

Batman winning is a no brainer. He is hugely popular, the previous movies have been great, and people who have seen the previous movies will want to see the final chapter, regardless of the reviews.

Spider-man vs. Avengers is tougher. I think the quick reboot is going to hurt interest in the new movie. And Marvel has really built interest in the Avengers movie by generating interest and awareness in the stable of characters. But, at the end of the day, Spider-man is just a bigger "star" in the Marvel universe... so I think it will prevail.

[madmarva]

It's really too hard to tell.

"The Dark Knight Rises" has a ton of fuel behind it from the previous movie, and Nolan's films have become somewhat of an event with "Inception" but it's got less time to linger in the theaters, opening so late in July. But a Nolan Batman film is a known quantity and known for quality. The other two films have big question marks, to me. Nitpick what we've seen so far all you want, but who really believes Nolan's going to deliver anything but a solid film if not better. He's not made a bad movie.

Spider-Man is as well known and as beloved as Batman if not more so. He's even more kid friendly. But for it to beat out Dark Night Rises, Webb is going to have to deliver an excellent movie, and he may do it, but we won't know until we see it. The thing that's really hard to gauge to me is how bad does the public want another Spidey movie. Did Sony wait long enough to build up enough desire? How will the recasting affect the movie? Will it be negative or neutral? Last year everyone thought the X-Men movie would be dead on arrival, but arguably it was the best of the super hero movies of 2011. Might happen for Spidey, too, but I'm not willing to gamble on it, having not seen it.

Avengers could be excellent and Marvel has a great track record. I really like Whedon's work, especially on TV, but he's got a daunting task making all of that work together. I get a little bit of Green Lantern feeling with the Avengers that I hope I am totally wrong about. Is it too much for the general public to buy all at once? I'm not predicting this film will fail like the GL movie. That's nearly impossible, but will it be good enough to outdistance Dark Knight and possibly Spidey? I don't know.

Now, Whedon certainly understands the characters better than Martin Campbell did GL, and maybe it will turn out great. But reading that he was basically writing the script as he was filming doesn't give me the most confidence.

The movie does open first which is somewhat of an advantage, but John Carter and Wrath of the Titans and Ghost Rider are similar type fare that open in the spring so it's not like people will be starved for popcorn movies on May 5th

So I'm going with what I would consider a safe choice:

1. Dark Knight
2. Spidey
3. Avengers

I hope Avengers does tremendous business, prompting Warner/DC to finally do a Justice League movie. Even if it turns out as mediocre as the GL film and flops, I still would love to see it happen.

[The Bat]

Well, my opinion might be biased...but here goes:

#1 The Dark Knight Rises
#2 Amazing Spiderman(because he's more recognizable to the general public)
#3 The Avengers

[enyawd72]

After seeing the trailers for all three, Dark Knight excited me the least.

Spidey and Avengers are going to dominate I think...they both just look like much more fun, and Dark Knight isn't as family-friendly, so it has that going against it.

1. Spidey
2. Avengers
3. Dark Knight

[Wee67]

1- Dark Knight- Built in cross-over momentum stored up from the last film. We'll see when the promotion really starts up. It will be close, however, with all Disney's promotion for...
2- The Avengers- We've already seen the push behind this film and I know Disney will continue the hard, hard sell on this one. That leaves...
3- Spidey- I really think the studio will have a hard time convincing a lot of the public to go see a movie they may feel the saw with Toby McGuire.

[RickD]

Very tough decision on this one:

The Avengers- Kids will love all their favorite superheros in one movie! Families will go to this one!

Spidey- Will catch the interests of all people even if it is a reboot

Dark Knight- Will be slow to catch the last one, but it will do great at the box office. Parents won't be so quick to take their kids to this one until they see it first due to the dark nature of the film and the violence.

IMHO of course!

[megoscott]

Any chance Spidey pulls in more girls with it's cute star and love interest? It sure as heck looks like more fun that Batman.

[The Bat]

Any chance Spidey pulls in more girls with it's cute star and love interest?

Good point!

[samurainoir]

I know I should be going with the track record of Nolan and Batman, but my gut is telling me Avengers.

It's a bit more colourful and kid-friendly than DKR. We've learned not to underestimate the world wide box office as a huge factor in profit margins, and this kind of loud splashy action movie always transports well overseas (Transformers). With the built in factor of those who have already seen 2 Iron Man Films, Captain America, Thor and Hulks before it.

I'm going to say the Avengers by a nose. Although I do hope that quality wins out with DKR. I'm starting to think Spider-man might surprise us all with his take world-wide. He is Spidey after all, even if he doesn't do Avengers or DKR numbers. I can't see any of the three flopping.

Did anyone predict Thor would come out on top? He did not have the brand recognition of the other heroes, but he was first out of the starting gate. I think again, the huge factor was world wide box office given how close they both were with their domestic takes. Sadly Captain AMERICA might not have had the advantage overseas, despite being the better film IMHO. I'd actually be fascinated to see the box office comparison with Thor in the countries where he was sold as "The First Avenger".

I was really rooting for X-Men first class given the caliber of talent involved, but without "name" mutants, I didn't think it would have done so well. Glad to be so pleasantly surprised. Again, quality wins out, and we've got the International Box Office that bought more tickets.

X-Men First Class
Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $146,408,305 41.4%
+ Foreign: $207,215,819 58.6%
= Worldwide: $353,624,124

Green Lantern
Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $116,601,172 53.0%
+ Foreign: $103,250,000 47.0%
= Worldwide: $219,851,172

Thor
Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $181,030,624 40.3%
+ Foreign: $268,295,994 59.7%
= Worldwide: $449,326,618

Captain America
Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $176,654,505 47.9%
+ Foreign: $191,953,858 52.1%
= Worldwide: $368,608,363

[The Toyroom]

^ As a DC fan those GL numbers make me cringe...