Antiques roadshow ...?

[EmergencyIan]

I wasn't sure how to title the thread, but I've been watching "Antiques Roadshow" for years. Recently, they have been airing 'vintage' episodes from the first two or three seasons with up-to-date appraisals along with the original appraisals.

Many of the 'antiques' values have dropped, considerably. I've noticed this especially with toys, though it holdS true for many other pieces that are not toy related.

I wonder if the value of toys has really dropped that dramatically in the past 15-20 years or if the appraisals, at that time, were not as accurate. Maybe, it's a bit of both.

The other thing that has crossed my mind (related to the above ^) is that when these episodes were produced in the mid to late 1990s, not nearly as many people had access to the internet as they do today. So, of course, not as many people were offering up their "treasures" for sell in the mid to late 90s as there were 5 to 10 years later. I would guess that some items that were thought to be very rare in the 1990s, turned out to not be so rare. That's just a guess on my part.

What do you think about all of this?

- Ian

[Confessional]

A few points of reference/consideration on the topic… most of the appraisals made on AR (and by other certified/reputable appraisers) are based on auction and sales records (now membership-based, global electronic databases). Beyond surface level economics, we continue through a modern era recession/depression which has driven many collectible markets down. You're seeing this reflected in revision in a *buyer's market*.

This is most evident in *vintage* items, where as many (SIC 100 Y/O+) antiques (tribal, primitives, Americana, Civil War, etc.) and rare antiquities and cultural treasures (art, objects, rare books and manuscripts, etc.) have appreciated as they are the commodities of the wealthy, and not typically purchased by the working/middle class or the periodic cash rich.

You brought up a good point with many more items coming to market; again economy-influenced. Also don't underestimate market driven flavors of the month… pop culture and adult nostalgia is a powerful influence from decade to decade or generation to generation. Those wants and desires come and go and are reflected in the fluctuation of modern records. Mid-century vintage is a good, current example of this… couldn't give that stuff away 20 years ago.

Also there's the institutional market vs. the mercado of the people, or the transactions of the street. In most cases, what you buy there is much *cheaper* than in the catalog, auction house or brokerage. When the venue is the estate sale or ebay vs. the gallery or dealer, interesting things happen which en mass can have influence too.

American toys are a relatively young category of collectibles; the market will swing more radically from time to time, That said, sometimes they just blow it… botched provenance, mis-information, unethical inflation. It's reality TV after all and in the end, most everything is just worth what someone is willing to pay.

[boss]

I think the age of the market also has something to do with it. My guess is that if you had a He-Man figure appraised today, the value will be higher than it will be in 5-10 years. By that time, the market will have moved on to whatever was popular after that.

[EmergencyIan]

Solid points, both of you.

- Ian

[WRM]

My opinion is that in terms of "toys" the market always moves both directions. For example, people who had or have tin toys from the 1920's or 1930's are feeling it , clearly the market for these has decreased over the years. Why, well my thought is because people in their 50's, 40's or 30's never had these as a child therefore would not necessarily want them now. Not counting cross collecting (batman, superman, and the like).

Same would be true for toy lines such as 3 3/4 GI Joe, He-man or Thunder-cats. Years ago, these could be picked up for very little. Now they are starting to grow in popularity with the young-ins who not only had them, but are also entering a time in their lives when they may have a little extra $$$$ to spend (instead of spending it out at the bars on Friday & Saturday nights).

From what I have noticed, things in pop culture and especiallytoys come and go and each has a shelf life of about 20 - 25 years.

Another factor may be the economic and technological times...years ago, one would sell unwanted items at a tag sale or something like that while today, everyone thinks they have "gold" and most things go out on eBay. Therefore, there are more items available for purchase. Obviously this will drive prices down as well.

Only my opinion

[hedrap]

I was actually watching one of those ARS eps this weekend, and all I could think is it was a combination of the economy forcing many people to unload their homes made up of passing Depression era seniors and their retiring Boomer children. The wars have also been a trove for mid-east artifacts, like centuries old rugs, which haven't been brought here since the 1920's.

A lot of stuff is being forced to the surface and the internets make it possible to find a value where literally twenty years ago, an option like Ebay did not exist. I still remember one old woman's flea market stand which, by today's standards, would be like walking into Kiddie City Valhalla. Her inventory remained unmoved until about '98/99, and then someone must have bought the entire booth for maybe a grand. By today's dollars, she had around 20 thousand.

[cjefferys]

My dad has bought/sold/collected antique furniture and lighting for many years. He tells me that today is totally a buyers market for many of these items. Pieces that went for thousands of dollars 15 or 20 years ago now get maybe a tenth of that. Personally I love the old stuff, if I had a big house I'd be buying tons of antique furniture because there are such great deals out there. I'm not really sure why this is the case though, younger generations prefer buying new furniture perhaps, and don't want old furniture because it's "old"?

[EmergencyIan]

My dad has bought/sold/collected antique furniture and lighting for many years. He tells me that today is totally a buyers market for many of these items. Pieces that went for thousands of dollars 15 or 20 years ago now get maybe a tenth of that. Personally I love the old stuff, if I had a big house I'd be buying tons of antique furniture because there are such great deals out there. I'm not really sure why this is the case though, younger generations prefer buying new furniture perhaps, and don't want old furniture because it's "old"?

That's really too bad for the seller.

In saying that, like you, I'd much prefer to furnish a home with antiques, where possible. Pieces that are functional and built to last. Many that will very likely out last us. So, as bad as it is for the seller...good for us buyers who want the pieces and get them at bargain prices because so many others (unfortunately) have no interest in them.

- Ian